Detection and attribution on climate change: [Essay Example], 631 words GradesFixer
close
This essay has been submitted by a student. This is not an example of the work written by professional essay writers.

Detection and Attribution on Climate Change

downloadDownload printPrint

Pssst… we can write an original essay just for you.

Any subject. Any type of essay.

We’ll even meet a 3-hour deadline.

Get your price

121 writers online

blank-ico
Download PDF

Detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change is a statistical signal-in-noise problem which is produced by the presence of our natural climate variability. Detection is a word commonly used as a reference to identifying significant changes in climate such as an upward trend in global-mean temperature. The changes must be significantly different and that can be explained by natural internal variability. However, detection does not necessarily give a definite explanation for the cause of change, we must also include the attribution. For example, when looking at enhanced greenhouse effect – after statistical methods suggesting that a change has occurred – we must attribute at least part of such a change to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

There are two components for natural climate variability: internal and external. Internal components interact within the coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land-biosphere system (IPCC, 1995). Whereas, external components are triggered by natural changes in the Sun’s output or in the volcanic aerosol loading of the atmosphere. This tells us that due to the natural internal and external processes, the climate is always changing even without human interaction. Only when the changes are relatively unusual to the predicted results from natural variability, do we state those changes in climate are significant.

Detecting a significant change is considered as a statistical problem in terms of nature. By using the standard approach, scientists are able to negate that the observed change in climate can be explained by natural variability, this more commonly referred to as the statistical “null” hypothesis. If the null hypothesis is rejected, it implies that a detection of a climate change at a specifically significant level has occurred. However, this does not identify the cause of the change, therefore, we must apply attribution. To understand the “cause and effect”, an investigation must be conducted which involves a series of experiments. The investigation also involves using the real climate system which systematically studies different causes. The experimentation process comprises of the following:

• No systematic method

• Varying numerous causes simultaneously e.g. changing land surface properties, concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols

The purpose of using the different methods mentioned above instead of changing an individual cause is that it’s more efficient, by eliminating the need to observe climate responses, and then vary the next cause.

In addition, the use of numerical models is needed for the experiment. To determine the signals for different hypothesized causes, a comparison between model simulations and the observed changes is required. The detection of a significant climate change is referred to as a “unique attribution” which involves human activities and both the consideration and elimination of plausible non-anthropogenic mechanisms. Though, in a statistical sense, this does not mean results will be certain. The reason for this uncertainty is that it’s a difficult task to define all probable “natural” climate change signals. Numerical models cannot be ruled out completely, even though it can only state whether available observations are consistent or inconsistent. This is due to its claim on statistical detection of an anthropogenic signal. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1995 there is a distinction between accomplishing “practically meaningful” and “statistically unambiguous” attribution. This distinction is based on different perceptions of risk between policymakers and scientists.

To summarise, in terms of statistics, detection of change is the process of demonstrating that an observed change in climate is highly unusual without providing a reason for the change. On the other hand, attribution processes can establish the cause and effect which provide us with reasons for the observed change in climate. Both cannot give a simple yes or no answer. Also, the results produced from successfully conducting detection processes will not be a discrete value, it will be given in a range instead.

infoRemember: This is just a sample from a fellow student.

Your time is important. Let us write you an essay from scratch

100% plagiarism-free

Sources and citations are provided

Find Free Essays

We provide you with original essay samples, perfect formatting and styling

Cite this Essay

To export a reference to this article please select a referencing style below:

Detection and attribution on climate change. (2018, July 05). GradesFixer. Retrieved March 7, 2021, from https://gradesfixer.com/free-essay-examples/detection-and-attribution-on-climate-change/
“Detection and attribution on climate change.” GradesFixer, 05 Jul. 2018, gradesfixer.com/free-essay-examples/detection-and-attribution-on-climate-change/
Detection and attribution on climate change. [online]. Available at: <https://gradesfixer.com/free-essay-examples/detection-and-attribution-on-climate-change/> [Accessed 7 Mar. 2021].
Detection and attribution on climate change [Internet]. GradesFixer. 2018 Jul 05 [cited 2021 Mar 7]. Available from: https://gradesfixer.com/free-essay-examples/detection-and-attribution-on-climate-change/
copy to clipboard
close

Sorry, copying is not allowed on our website. If you’d like this or any other sample, we’ll happily email it to you.

    By clicking “Send”, you agree to our Terms of service and Privacy statement. We will occasionally send you account related emails.

    close

    Attention! this essay is not unique. You can get 100% plagiarism FREE essay in 30sec

    Recieve 100% plagiarism-Free paper just for 4.99$ on email
    get unique paper
    *Public papers are open and may contain not unique content
    download public sample
    close

    Sorry, we cannot unicalize this essay. You can order Unique paper and our professionals Rewrite it for you

    close

    Thanks!

    Your essay sample has been sent.

    Want us to write one just for you? We can custom edit this essay into an original, 100% plagiarism free essay.

    thanks-icon Order now
    boy

    Hi there!

    Are you interested in getting a customized paper?

    Check it out!
    Having trouble finding the perfect essay? We’ve got you covered. Hire a writer

    GradesFixer.com uses cookies. By continuing we’ll assume you board with our cookie policy.

    exit-popup-close

    Haven't found the right essay?

    Get an expert to write you the one you need!

    exit-popup-print

    Professional writers and researchers

    exit-popup-quotes

    Sources and citation are provided

    exit-popup-clock

    3 hour delivery

    exit-popup-persone