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Neel believes that one of the sources of economic growth is simply population growth. The growing of the population means that there are more workers to produce products and services and there are more consumers to buy those goods and services. He believes that immigration is a viable option to fill the void of not having enough workers for jobs in the future. The reality is that the country has a large aging/retiring population and the fertility rate in the U. S. has gone down. Our population rate is slower. At this point, the country has three choices: to accept the slower growth, subsidize fertility (which gives people incentives to have more babies, but that option could be expensive for the government i. e. tax credits, free child care, etc. ) or embrace immigration.
Neel firmly believes in the goal the FOMC sets regarding Dual Mandate. Meaning Congress assigns the FOMC the goal of stable prices, which is defined as 2% of inflation and maximum/full employment. Attempting to ensure that as many people who want to work are able to find jobs. Neel is finding that the FMOC continues to come up short on their inflation mandate but also understands that the inflation mandate should average 2% over the long run. He understands that when the inflation rate was 1. 5% for years, that it should be okay that inflation rate increases to 2. 5% in other years, which will simply mean over the long run the average will be closer to their target of 2%. Neel takes a practical approach to the data. He chooses not to forecast. He feels that it adds to the noise that the media will create when the forecast is incorrect. And since there are 12 regional presidents, he feels they should not be giving their own individual forecasts. Neel wants to see the evidence of the data to provide a more accurate evaluation according to what he sees. He knows that providing forecasts and evaluation are judgement calls and states that it is subjective and not an exact science. As it relates to currencies and the stock market. Neel tries not to pay much attention to them.
Although, he keeps an eye on it in the interest of crises, which harkens back to the reason the Federal Reserve was created. However, he does try to differentiate a stock market correction like the tech market bursting, which did not lead crises from the 2008 housing bust which did create a financial crisis. He believes the FOMC should work very hard to prevent crises, but within that, they should allow the markets to move up and down.
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