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The development of WWII and its respective consequences post war had there been a Japanese victory at Midway would also have shifted the timeline of world history. A japanese victory would take out all of the three American fleet in Midway, ambushing the elite of the American naval aviation. Following the Japanese victory, Yamamoto would plan to seize Hawaii and significantly hinder American war effort by stationing in the American Pacific base. An interception of American forces in the Hawaiian region will increase Japanese power within the Pacific territory and directly breach US borders. Germany First and the Manhattan Project would be under greater pressure considering the Japanese control of the nearby Guadalcanal barricading the supply line US has with Australia. This will delay important aid MacArthur planned in his counter-offensive against Japanese forces later on. Furthermore, the loss in the Battle of Midway would have greatly affected the presidential election of FDR in 1944, possibly altering American war strategy. Though the atomic bombing seems to be inevitable, the Japanese war front would have received considerably more options when planning their invasion.
In theory, a Japanese victory would cost most, if not all of American resources and manpower in Yorktown. It should be duly noted that the most talented portion of the US naval aviation is stationed there. A complete ambush would take place if the US suffered the destruction of all three carriers. The quality of the entire naval aviation would have decreased if the elites were to be eliminated. The US would then have no fleet carriers in the Pacific post-battle with only three left in the world. Under the Germany First Policy, the US would not be able to spare the remaining fleet carriers to intercept Japanese war efforts.The US had seven Essex carriers scheduled for launch in 1943, and another ten for 1944 but until then, for at least a year or two, the Japanese would have had free reign in the Pacific.
Following the victory, the first priority would be infiltrate the Hawaiian islands as Yamamoto had previously planned. Hawaii has been noted to be constructed specifically for settling US Pacific conflicts. If the Japanese fleet seized control of Hawaii, they would be able to gain more power by stationing there. Not only would the Japanese be able to eliminate the American interference, they can increase their range of patrol. They could easily seize Guadalcanal, and control the ports that remain a great pathway for resources to support the US war effort.
Taking into the consideration the role of Australia, Japanese power in Guadalcanal would easily intercept the supply lines it created with the US. The Southeast Pacific Advance route would thereby not exist. MacArthur would not have been able to create a counteroffensive without US aid and made to defend the Australian borders from Japanese invasions.
The Germany First Policy, under such circumstances, would be lessened in the US agenda. With the Japanese threatening on US territory, the US would most likely spare many of the forces it used in the European theater to try and take back Hawaii and Guadalcanal. This would affect the war in Europe and the efficiency of their progression in war as well as the political conflict. Thereby in order to try and commit to both warfronts, the US would most likely urge the progression of the development of nukes to put an end to one of the conflict. Due to the small likelihood of a Japanese military surrender, the US would still most likely bomb a civilian target in effort to force a surrender, but there would be a significant change in the time the nuke is to be dropped.
Yet just from the loss of the Battle of Midway and the possible seizure of Hawaii, this would have greatly impacted America in the turn of a new election. Without substantial and important victories to support FDR, it remains quite likely that he may not be elected in 1944. The leadership of another president would affect the strategies that the US will eventually implicate in the war, being one of the most significant effects a Japanese victory may have on American history.
The American strategy, the election of our president, Guadalcanal, it would have all been alternated should the opposing side win. The course of history would be dramatically different, had the Japanese terminated the American naval fleets. An insight to the possibilities of Japan seizing control of Hawaii and Guadalcanal have been presented. Political conflicts may prove to be different, as would the strategies of war. Japanese threat would be more prevalent had the Battle of Midway been in their favor.
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