Overview of The Demographic Changes of Germany

Introduction

Germany may be Europe’s economic growth engine, but there’s one thing that the country is failing to produce in big numbers: Germans. The population projections regarding Germany show that the country’s population, which was 81.1 million in 2014, is on an inescapable decline. According to studies, Germany’s population will grow weakly in the next few years before turning down for good. By 2060, the population will fall to between 68 million and 73 million people, a loss of between 8 million and 13 million residents from today’s level. In the long term, a decline in Germany’s population is inevitable. The number of deaths will increasingly exceed the number of births. The positive balance of immigration into and emigration from Germany cannot close this gap for good.

Impact on the Workforce

What is more, the population’s decrease is affecting multiple areas in the country. The working-age population will be greatly affected by population decline and the ageing of the population. The working age, which is defined as the age between 20 and 64, comprised 49.2 million people in 2013. Their number will decline significantly after 2020, reaching around 44 to 45 million in 2030. In 2060, about 38 million people will be of working age, if net migration gradually drops from around 500,000 in 2014 to 200,000 in 2021 and remains constant thereafter, which means a 60% decline. If immigration drops to 100,000 persons by 2021 and remains constant thereafter, in 2060 the labor force potential will be even smaller, standing at 34 million persons, or –30% compared with 2013. An increase in the birth rate to 1.6 children per woman would only have a stabilizing effect on the number of people of working age from the 2040s onwards. By 2020, the shortage of skilled workers in Germany is expected to be 1.8 million. By 2060, it is expected to hit 3.9 million.

Geopolitical Implications

While many EU countries face similar strains, Germany’s are particularly acute. With a strong economy and low unemployment, its working-age population is falling, putting huge pressures on employers. And there are also possible geopolitical consequences: with the British and French populations set to grow, Germany may not remain the EU’s most populous country — or even its biggest economy after 2050, with implications for Europe’s balance of power.

Migration and Its Effects

Another demographic aspect that has a major effect on the population of Germany is migration. In 2015, about 995,000 first-time asylum applications were submitted in countries of the European Union, more than twice the number of 2014. Germany has become the primary country of destination in Europe for asylum-seekers, receiving almost 175,000 asylum-seeker applications.

The Dublin Regulations

Germany is part of the Dublin area, which is comprised of the EU Member States as well as Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein. The Dublin regulations determine which European State is responsible for an asylum claim and seek to ensure that each application entered in the Dublin area is processed by one state only. In 2015, the German Office for Migration and Refugees, along with other offices or ministries from other European States, suspended the Dublin regulations for asylum-seekers from Syria, primarily to accelerate the asylum process based on humanitarian grounds (European Commission, 2015). The number of deportations has increased significantly since 2013 to levels comparable to those about a decade earlier. Germany recorded over 20,000 deportations in 2015. The actual number of deportations represents less than 10 percent of the number of asylum-seekers who are living temporarily in Germany and are legally required to leave. Of the more than 220,000 people required to leave, however, some 172,000 are officially “tolerated” (geduldet) owing to factors such as illness or the lack of papers that prevent the home country from accepting their return.

Regional Distribution of Asylum-Seekers

Furthermore, 1.1 million asylum applications were recorded in the German registration system, EASY. Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg have the largest proportion of asylum-seekers with 15.3 percent and 13.0 percent, respectively. Schleswig-Holstein and Thuringia rank lowest with 3.4 percent and 2.7 percent.

Integration and Employment

Despite increasing rates of employment among refugees with longer duration of stay in Germany, it took around 20 years for earlier waves of refugees to attain the employment rate of the national population. Integration courses, including language and remedial courses, helped refugees to better integrate into society. In Germany, asylum-seekers who have good prospects for granted stay have access to such courses. Increases in the number of asylum-seekers with granted refugee status have led to a rise in the number of participants in integration courses. Some 283,000 refugees were eligible to participate in integration courses in 2015, a 34 percent increase over 2014. Around 179,000 refugees attended integration courses in 2015, an increase of 26 percent from 2014.

Security Concerns

There are some populist scholars claiming that refugees coming to Germany could become a security threat. On the other hand, the security situation in Germany remains stable against the populist claims. Crimes committed by migrants dropped by more than 36 percent between January and June of 2016 (Federal Ministry of the Interior, 2016).

Conclusion

In conclusion, Germany's demographic changes pose significant challenges to the country's economic and social fabric. The declining population and its impact on the workforce, combined with migration dynamics and integration efforts, will continue to shape Germany's future. Addressing these challenges will require comprehensive policy solutions and international cooperation.

References

• European Commission. (2015). Dublin Regulation. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/asylum/examination-of-applicants_en
• Federal Ministry of the Interior. (2016). Report on Migration and Integration. Retrieved from https://www.bmi.bund.de/EN/topics/migration/integration/integration-node.html