The Role of The Presidential Approval in Determining State Legislature Election Outcome in The USA

Introduction

Several scholars indicate that presidential approval can play a role in determining state legislature election outcome in the USA. Among the notable researcher is Rogers (2012), who holds that the USA president is a key variable in determining who can be elected to the state’s upper or lower house. However, Gallego (2010) hold that issues of residency, race, ethnicity, gender, age, party affiliation, and election spending can be ignored.

Presidential approval ratings have long been studied as a key indicator of a sitting president's overall popularity and public support. This is especially true in the United States, where presidential approval ratings have been used to predict election outcomes and the performance of down-ballot races such as state legislature elections. While there is no consensus among scholars on the extent to which presidential approval can affect these outcomes, several studies have suggested a correlation between presidential approval and state legislature election outcomes.

One of the most notable scholars in this field is David Rogers, who argues that presidential approval is a significant factor in determining who can be elected to a state's upper or lower house. Rogers' research suggests that when a president has high approval ratings, candidates from the president's party tend to perform better in state legislature elections. Conversely, when a president's approval ratings are low, candidates from the opposing party tend to perform better.

However, there are other scholars who argue that factors such as residency, race, ethnicity, gender, age, party affiliation, and election spending cannot be ignored in determining state legislature election outcomes. For example, Daniel Gallego has suggested that while presidential approval ratings may have some impact on election outcomes, they are far from the only factor at play. According to Gallego, factors such as a candidate's personal characteristics and qualifications, the issues at stake in a given election, and the overall political climate in a particular state or district can all play a role in determining who is elected to the state legislature.

Despite these differing opinions, there is no denying that presidential approval ratings can have a significant impact on state legislature elections. A popular president can bring increased visibility and support to candidates from their party, while an unpopular president can make it more difficult for candidates from their party to win. This can be especially true in closely contested races, where even a small shift in support can make a big difference in the outcome of the election.

Hypothesis

Presidential approval is the most powerful variable in determining how people vote for a state legislature. The study also hypothesizes that party identification, race, gender, religion, age, and class are confounding variables in the study.

Overview of Federal and State Legislature Elections in the USA

The election is an important exercise in the USA since it enables the citizens to elect leaders at the federal, regional, and local level. At the federal level, the president is chosen indirectly by people through an electoral college. The constitution of the country provides that the president (executive) and the legislature are elected on different days. The state legislature has two houses, upper house, and lower house, except in Nebraska that has one unicameral house. The upper house consists of 100 senators, who are elected after six years, the house of representation/ lower house has 435 members, elected for two years to represent a constituency. (Bessi and Ferrera , 2016)

State elections are controlled by state laws that are controlled by state legislatures with the aim of regulating elections at state and local level. State governments can also have powers to make laws that are granted to the federal governments. Unlike the federal levels that are controlled by the constitution, state governments are controlled by states laws that can differ from one region to another. State governments have three branches, such as executive, legislature, and judicially. Unlike Nebraska that has an only unicameral legislature, all states have a bicameral legislature. The upper house is called the Senate, while the lower house is called of House of Representatives. It is also evident that the senators serve for six years, while the members of House of Representatives serve for a two-year term.

Another factor that can affect the outcome of an election is party politics. For example in the USA, the major parties include the republicans and the democrats. The Republican Party borrows its ideologies from the American Revolution that was founded by the anti-slavery activists. Currently, the party stands for American conservatism that advocates for respect for American traditions, support for Judeo Christian values, moral absolutism, free market, and free trade. Moreover, the party advocates for strong national defense, gun rights, deregulation, and restrictions of labor unions among others. It is also factual that the Republican party is socially conservative and aims at upholding traditional values that are based in Judeo Christian ethics. From the outcome of 2016, it is evident that the presidency can result from the outcome of state legislation. The election of a Republican Party candidate, Donald Trump influenced the state legislature to have a majority in the house of representations and in the Senate. Moreover, there are a majority of governors in the house who are 32 out of 50 seats. On the other hand, Democratic Party philosophies advocate for social and economic equality and the welfare of the state. Furthermore, it seeks to provide the government intervention and regulation in the economy.

The Role of Presidential Approval on the Outcome of the State Election

The office of the president plays a critical role in influencing the outcome of a state election in the USA. Despite the fact the presidential and state legislature election are held in different days, the presidency tends to play a major role in influencing the outcome of the election at the lower and upper house of the state elections. For instance, as per 2018, 33 state governors in the USA are the Republicans, while Democrats and independent consist of 16 and 1 respectively. With regards to the senators, Republicans have 51, Democrats 47 and 2 independent. At the lower house, republicans command more than 55% of the seats, while the Democrats and independent holds 43% and 0 % respectively (Bessi and Ferrera, 2016). From this statistics, it is evident that the majority of the members of the upper and lower house belong to the party affiliation of Donald Trump. Therefore, it is logical to conclude that the party of the president tends to influence the election outcome of the state elections. There are several perspectives that explain why the president approval tends to be a determinant factor in state legislature election outcome. 

To begin with, the office of the presidency is the USA is the most influential seat in the world (Greenwald et al., 2009). The position is associated with power and prestige; as a result, it is easy for the seating president to sell the party ideologies to the grassroots. In this case, the structure offers the president a noble opportunity for the president to persuade the constituents to elects members who are from his party. Notably, the office of the President of the USA is among the influential institutions in the world. According to Rogers (2012), the powers are helpful in protecting the constitution. It this case, veto powers can help in protecting the public against legislation that does meet the requirements of the constitutions. Besides, the office of the president can help in protecting the public against irrational laws. Furthermore, the presidential veto can also help in protecting the citizens against harmful policies and corruptions. Therefore, the approval powers can enable the president to prevent the election of leaders, who do not meet the requirements of the constitutions.

The factor played a significant role in determining election outcomes not only in the USA but in other parts of the world. For instance, in the USA, the president has been in the forefront in persuading the Americans about their policies that are aimed at restoring the heritage and the pride of the USA. The president resorted to a critical issue that affects the contemporary needs of the Americans, such as changing immigration laws to favor the current citizens of Americans. It is factual that the problem of immigration has become a critical issue in the USA has the influx of legal and illegal immigrants have posed a threat to the general welfare of the Americans, especially with regards to job opportunities and sharing of state resources. As a result, the president has managed to influence the constituents to choose more members from the Republican Party because it is believed that they can assist the president to improve the economy of the current citizens of the USA. 

Besides, the president’s assurance of regaining the Judea Christian values in America has also contributed to the outcome of the elections. It is factual that contemporary America is characterized by debates on morality, especially with regards to the issue of marriage and family values. In response to this situation, the seating presidents assured the people that he was determined to restore the traditional religious values, hence attracting the support of many people, who tend to believe that the Americans are headed to the wrong direction as far as moral issues are a concern. Therefore, the presidential manifested reached the grassroots, whereby the constituents headed the president’s call by choosing more members from the Republicans as it is believed such a choice is relevant in implementing the development strategies of the president.

Additionally, issues of deregulation, gun control, environmental conservation, withdrawing from some deals, are other issues that have attracted the admiration of most Americans, hence affecting the voting patterns of the Americans. For instance, Trump’s promise of withdrawing from Iran deal was accepted by a majority of the Americans because it was believed that the act can help in improving the current economy of the USA. Despite the fact that the issue has attracted worldwide condemnation from some members, people at the grassroots are at home with such policies because they believe that it is meant to improve the lives of the Americans. 

Additionally, the USA president veto powers have also played a role in influencing state elections. It is factual that the president of the USA has the veto powers to laws passed by the Congress. Apart from approving laws from the Congress, he can also propose legislation for the house to approve. On the other hand, a presidential veto is a constitutional mechanism that can enable a president to refuse to sign a legislative bill. In this case, the president has powers to stop the bill from becoming a law. Therefore, most citizens at the grass root were unwilling to choose leaders from the Democrats because it was believed that such as a choice can become a hindrance in passing proposed bills at the upper and lower house. Similarly, choosing members from a different party from that of the president is believed to a matter that can interfere with legislation, especially if a member proposes laws that are not in accordance with the values of the president’s affiliate party. In this case, the president may refuse to append his signature on a bill, hence making legislation process futile. 

Furthermore, people tend to prefer the approval of the president because he is the custodian of the laws. According to the USA constitution, the president has a mandate of taking care of the laws and ensuring that they are carefully executed. Despite the fact that all legislative powers are vested in the Congress, it is factual that the office of the president is critical since he is the chief formulator of the public policy. As a result, choosing leaders who are affiliated to the party of the president is viewed as an important strategy of promoting development. 

According to Rogers (2012), presidential approval has powers to affect the state legislative voting decisions. In this case, some citizens tend to take presidential endorsee seriously because it is believed that choosing a presidential preference can be rewarding to them since it can be easy for the local government to implement their budgets and development agendas. As a result, the USA president is respected because he is the only official in the USA, who has the mandate of making decisions that can affect the whole nation.

Degree To Which Presidential Approval Can Affects The Out Comes in State Legislative Elections

On examining whether presidential approval is the only factor that can affect election outcome, Bowler et al. (2001) found out that race and ethnicity cannot be ignored in the discussion. It is evident that race is a major factor that can affect the voting pattern in elections. According to Fraklin (2001), race and ethnicity are important issues since they can have a strong influence on the outcome of an election. In this case, the white majority issues are likely to have an impact on voting behavior as they tend to attract more than those of other races. This implies that a party that endeavors to address the issues that affect a majority of the population is likely to get more support than that which does not prioritize the needs of the majority. For instance, in the 2016 presidential election, race and ethnicity are cited to have played role in determining the choice of leaders. It is evident that president Trump’s policies appeared more to the whites compared to other races because he promised to address issues that tend to affect the whites, who happen to be a majority in the country. It is factual that the Trump promised to deal with critical issues, such as immigration. Categorically, he promised to regulate immigration laws as this could enable the Americans to access job opportunities and other resources that have been threatened by the influx of legal and illegal immigrants. As a result, the campaign strategy played a key role in influencing federal, state, and local elections since some Americans looked forward in electing leaders, who can help the president to implement this strategic plan. The scenario impacted on the state elections; hence favoring Republican candidates compared to the Democrats, whose ideology were more liberal in approach. 

According to Gallego (2010), minority voters have played a critical role in determining who is elected at the federal, state, and local level in the USA. Rogers (2012) argues that the rise of political power among the minority groups has increased salience of issues, such as immigration, criminal justice reform, and gender equality in the USA. In the recent past, the issue of immigration has become a critical issue due to the liberalization of immigration laws. The trend has seen an increase of immigrants, who have posted a challenge in the access to resources and security. As a result, some citizens were desperate for a leader who could help in regulating the influx of illegal immigrants, especially from Mexico. The ideologies of Republicans were relevant, hence favoring those candidates, who were affiliated to the presidential party. Additionally, the recent terror activities in the USA also shifted the minds of some Americans, especially with regards to immigration laws and gun control. Particularly, the problem of insecurity has been linked to illegal immigrants and liberalization of gun licenses. The view of the Republicans on the issue posed an opportunity of enhancing security, hence giving those leaders, who subscribed to the Republican ideology an upper hand of getting elected as compared to those were perceived to be in the opposition or independent. 

Many have sought to discover whether age can impact on the outcome of a state election. In this context, Spencer (2014) found that demographic issues can impact on the outcome of an election since age can be a determining issue in an election outcome. For instance, in the 2016 USA presidential election, the millennial appeared to lean to democratic ideology, while other ages favored democratic ideologies. In this case, it is evident that the millennial population favored democratic ideologies because they are liberal to fundamental issues that pertain morality, ethics, politics, security, and family values. On the hand, the elderly population favored the Republican candidates because they tend to hold to the traditions of the country. It is evident that the elderly population believes that traditional realities can be a panacea to the current problems that have been caused by globalization and technology. 

Pippen et al. (2002) found out that gender is another factor that is fundamental in understanding election of the USA, Gender has been considered as an important variable in the any election. In the USA, women voter turnout has been surpassing the turnouts of men since1980. It is evident that in 2012, an estimate of 7.8 more women voted than men, whereby older women are less likely to vote than older women. According to presidential an election has passed recorded more women turn out than those of men since 1980s. Bessi and Ferrera (2016) argue that gender prejudices played an important role in determining the 2016 election as more studies indicate that majority of women intended to vote for Clinton, while majority of men generally supported Trump. It is also evident that Black and Linao women voted for Clinton than they did for Trump. Similarly, white women voted heavily for Clinton than they did for Trump. Bessi and Ferrera (2016) found out that some people voted for Trump since it was believed that men leaders can perform better than women leaders. Although this ideology is not necessarily true, the believed is deep-seated in the belief system of some people. Most people from the African and Asian descent tend to subscribe to the belief that women’s place is to do household chores. Some people also believe that women are inferior to men, hence cannot make it to the position of leadership. As a result, the stereotypes affected the election outcomes from the federal to the state level. At the federal level, it affected Hillary Clinton, who lost to Donald Trump. In this context, since Clinton lost in the presidency, it was difficult for her to influence the outcome of the state elections, hence leading to the election of fewer Democrats compared to the Republicans. Similarly, the gender factor affected the choice of the state legislature since more men were chosen as to the upper and lower house compared to their counterparts. 

Furthermore, religion has been cited as an important factor that can determine the voting patterns in an election. It is factual that different religious groups tend to have different opinions on issues, such as abortion, homosexuality, environment, and economics, hence leading to different opinions on who should be chosen for a particular position. It is evident that moral issues have attracted conflicting debates in the USA. For instance, the conservatives have resented critical issues, such as same-sex marriages and abortions, while the liberals have advocated for the same. Therefore, the recent elections, the Republicans were favored by the Democrats since the majority of the populations are embarking to conservative ideology as a mean of restoring tradition human and family values. In this regards, secular groups also tend to have different opinions on issues that are widely spoken on elections, such as abortion, homosexuality, technology, environment among others. As a result, an analysis of the conflicting opinions of both the Republican and Democrats is important because it can help in understanding voter preference, hence comprehending cultural differences that can impact on the status of the country. In this case, campaign managers ought to understand who will vote for certain issues and the reasons why they vote for them. Moreover, there is a need for office bearers to please their constituencies since they will be aware of the needs of the people. 

Additionally, social economic status is another factor that can affect an election. It is evident that wealthier American vote at higher rates than the lower social economic status class. According to Chen and Rodden (2013), differences in the turn out tend to affect public policy since the political class tends to respond more to the desire of the wealthier constituents than that of the poorer constituents. The issue of class is also manifested on the type of personalities and parties, who tend to appeal a particular class in the society.

The issue of party identification is also critical because it can affect the election outcome of an election. According to Bessi and Ferrera (2016), a voting choice is affected by campaign issues, such as person’s partisan predications like party identifications, political philosophy, and social attributes. The history of election in the USA indicates that party identification can have an impact on an election outcome. For instance, recent USA elections indicate that members of the Republicans won the majority seats compared to the Democrats. Besides, those who did not identify with any party scored poorly as they only managed to have one governor and two senators. At the lower house, the managed to have a dozen of members compared to their counterparts. Therefore, part identification is a significant factor in determining an election outcome since those people, who come from the party of the president has higher chances of getting elected compared to those members, who are neutral or in opposition. Moreover, those members who vie on a democratic party in a state that is perceived to be a democrat zone tend to get more votes regardless of his personality and social attributes. Similarly, members from a Republican zone will vote for a leader who subscribes to party politics.

According to Spencer (2014), the issue of party politics can affect the outcome of an election. For example in the USA, the major parties include the republicans and the democrats. The Republican Party borrows its ideologies from the American Revolution that was founded by the anti-slavery activists. Currently, the party stands for American conservatism that advocates for respect for American traditions, support for Judeo Christian values, moral absolutism, free market, and free trade. Moreover, the party advocates for strong national defense, gun rights, deregulation, and restrictions of labor unions among others. It is also factual that the Republican party is socially conservative and aims at upholding traditional values that are based in Judeo Christian ethics. From the outcome of 2016, it is evident that the presidency can result from the outcome of state legislation. The election of a Republican Party candidate, Donald Trump influenced the state legislature to have a majority in the house of representations and in the Senate. Moreover, there are a majority of governors in the house who are 32 out of 50 seats. Therefore, since the US is characterized by a highly decentralized election mechanism, there are various factors that can affect the outcome of an election. Political parties in some states have been dominated by Democrats. According to Bessi and Ferrera (2016), the president has the ability to influence state legislative elections if members of the legislature share the same party. In this case, it evident that if a president shares the party of the majority party, there is a likelihood of influencing the Congress than in a rival party. A government that has a united house poses an opportunity for a president to influence decisions than in a scenario when the house is divided. Therefore, a president acting in a united house of representation is likely to have more influence than when the house is divided. 

Furthermore, the popularity of a president can affect the outcome of an election within a state. In this case, more popular presidents can be more successful in getting the attention of the Congress than unpopular presidents. It is evident that unpopular presidents have no little effect on the party as they are irrelevant in congressional priorities. Speech influence and communication ability of a president can also impact on the outcome of an election. It is evident that a speech can influence and change behavior. 

The evaluation of a president is performing can influence an election. It is evident that public view in the way the president is performing is an important factor that can influence an election. In this case, when a president is viewed as more popular and successful, other seats can also be viewed as successful as well. Bessi and Ferrera (2016) show how Roosevelt influenced to vote to turn up by his personality and aggressive executive elections. It is evident that he thought that the president had powers to influence people’s voting behavior and performance. As a result, he endeavored to challenge the notions of limited government and individualism, hence maintaining that he should serve as an agent of reform for the people. 

On the issue of spending, it is evident that a candidate who spends more also tends to have a greater influence in an election compared to the one who spends less in an election. Voter turnout can impact on the outcome of an election in the USA. The lower the turn out the greater the likelihood that election is not a representative of the people’s opinion. 

How Do Nonpartisan Legislature Matter?

Nonpartisan candidates are those participants who appear in the ballot without party designation. The non-partisan approach can matter in a region where voters have a moderate thinking or in cases where they are not a party to particular issues that are being emphasized by either the republicans or democrats. Wright (2002) also found out that nonpartisan candidate can matter if the constituents feel that a candidate was unfairly denied a party ticket in the primaries. Additionally, the personal attributes of a candidate and his or her ability to coordinate elections can also determine the outcome of an election. However, party affiliation is seen as the most meaningful influence voters in terms of which candidate they should support. As a result, party identification has been manifested as an important factor in affecting American public. The partnership is relevant because it can provide meaningful use that can be behind a complex political decision. 

Nebraska Unicameral and other Legislature

Nebraska legislature is a unicameral state in the USA. Despite the fact that most states are bicameral, the state has one chamber of legislation. Historically, Nebraska was bicameral but in 1913, the house becomes unicameral due to the inefficiency that was associated with the legislative process. It is evident that before unification, several bills were lost since the two houses could not agree on a single version. It was also believed that one house would save money and enable it to effectively pursue its mining interests. 

Notably, Nebraska a unicameral and nonpartisan state, whose members are senators. Among the 50 states, the 49 members it is the smallest legislature of the USA state (Masket and Shor ,2015). It was designed in the 1930s with the aim of fostering deliberative democracy by enhancing transparency and downplaying party related politics. According to Wright (2002), the organization of the legislature encourages genuine deliberation that is can be good for every member. 

The Nebraska senators are mostly Republicans, hence enabling the easy passage of laws. As a result, the state law is better than it would otherwise because promoting deliberation. The Unicam has a single chamber that consists of 49 senators each representing 49 legislative districts. In this case, bills are assigned to a group of senators, who may be able to schedule a time to spend to discuss the bills. In this case, every 49 senators may participate at each stage of deliberation. It is evident that state senators are elected on a non-partisan basis. In this circumstance, it is common for senators to work closely other bills with party affiliation and find creative ways that can enable the house to get 25 votes from the 49 senators (Masket and Shor, 2015). It is evident that for the bill to be approved it must go through stages that can enable the house to get the required number of a legislature. 

Additionally, Nebraska's unicameral system is also known for its unique committee process. Every senator is required to serve on at least one committee, and committee assignments are made by the Speaker of the Legislature. The committees are responsible for reviewing and amending bills before they are presented to the full legislature for debate and voting.

The committee system allows for a more thorough and detailed examination of bills, as well as providing opportunities for input from a wider range of stakeholders. Committee hearings are open to the public, providing transparency and allowing for public input. The committees are also responsible for conducting oversight of state agencies and programs, ensuring that they are operating efficiently and effectively.

The nonpartisan nature of the Nebraska Legislature also means that senators are not bound by party loyalty and are free to vote according to their conscience and the needs of their constituents. This can lead to more independent and thoughtful decision-making, rather than simply voting along party lines.

Overall, the unicameral system in Nebraska has been successful in promoting deliberative democracy and producing effective legislation. It allows for more thorough examination of bills and greater input from a wider range of stakeholders. The nonpartisan nature of the Legislature also fosters independent and thoughtful decision-making, leading to better outcomes for the state. While it may be unconventional, the Nebraska unicameral system serves as a model for other states looking to improve their legislative process.

Conclusion

The presidential approval plays a critical role in determining state legislature election outcome in the USA. The election of the president can influence people’s thinking on who should be elected as a senator, governor, or constituency representative. It also evident that most voters tend to vote for a candidates who belongs to the same party as that of the president because it is believed that he or she will support federal and state bills. A case of Nebraska legislature indicate that members who belong to the same find it effective to pass bill, hence to some extent citizens are justified to use the present as a road mark of electing leaders at the state level. However, it is evident that variables, such as race, age, gender, and class cannot be ignored in the attempt to understand factors that determines election out comes in the USA state legislature.