Brexit: The Beginning of The Downfall of The European Union

Introduction: The Potential Collapse of the European Union

One of the most significant news stories of the year was the potential collapse of the European Union (EU), one of the largest financial unions in the world. Analysts have suggested that the first step toward weakening and potentially collapsing the EU was Brexit. In a referendum on 23 June 2016, 51.9% of the UK electorate voted to leave the EU. On 29 March 2017, the British government invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union, which signified that the United Kingdom would depart on 29 March 2019. In July 2016, a new government department was created specifically for Brexit, named “The Department for Exiting the European Union” (DExEU). Previous events suggest that the number of EU member states will soon decrease, leaving only 27 countries (Smith, 2018).

The Legal Framework: Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon

The Treaty of Lisbon, which includes Article 50, was signed by all EU states and became law in 2009. Prior to this, there was no formal mechanism for a country to leave the EU. Article 50 is quite concise—just five paragraphs—detailing that any EU member state may decide to exit the union. The process takes two years to finalize an agreement and depart the union, as governments need to assess British financial capabilities to maintain economic stability post-Brexit. The post-departure trade deal is expected to be the most complex aspect of negotiations, requiring approval from over 30 national and regional parliaments across Europe, some of which may wish to hold referendums (Johnson, 2019). As Prime Minister May stated, the UK intended to remain part of the European Single Market, which ensures the free movement of goods, capital, services, and citizens. The market includes the EU's 28 member states, with countries like Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine given access to the "four freedoms" of the Single Market (Brown & Davis, 2020).

The Financial Implications of Brexit

Brexit is a prolonged process that may require additional funding. According to various reports, expenses are estimated to range from £44 billion to £88 billion. However, the Secretary of the Brexit Department, David Davis, has stated, "We will not be paying €100bn" (Davis, 2018). The British referendum demonstrated that a majority of UK citizens were dissatisfied with EU membership. Some politicians argue that this dissatisfaction stems from the UK's imperialistic views of Europe, as they aspire not to be just a regular member, but a leading state in the region. Brexit is considered one of the most crucial events in UK history, yet it potentially severs connections with other European countries (Thompson, 2017).

The Economic and Social Impact

There is a strong consensus among economists that Brexit is likely to reduce the UK's real per-capita income in the medium- and long-term. Studies on the referendum's effects indicate annual losses of £404 for the average British household and a 1.3% reduction in UK GDP (Economist, 2021). Another potential consequence of Brexit is that it might complicate travel for ordinary citizens in European countries. However, as long as they possess a Schengen visa, this should not pose significant problems (Williams, 2022).

Conclusion: The Future of the UK Post-Brexit

Even after Brexit, the UK will remain a democratic and free nation, serving as an example for other governments. It is expected to maintain good relationships with other European states and provide mutual assistance when necessary. An EU meeting to discuss Brexit was called for 29 April 2018, with Mr. Donald Tusk emphasizing that the "priority would be giving 'clarity' to EU residents, businesses, and member states about the talks ahead." Mr. Michel Barnier, the European Chief Negotiator for Brexit, called for talks to be completed by October of that year, allowing time for any agreement to be ratified before the UK's departure in March 2019 (Barnier, 2019).

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