Non Traditional Security Challenges to Pakistan

Introduction

Non traditional Regional Security Architecture for South Asia funded by John D and Catherine T. Mc Arthur examines opportunities for cooperation on shared non traditional security concerns as potential building blocks toward developing a viable regional security architecture for South Asia. In this projects first phase(2009-10) critical challenges faced by Pakistan which include climate change, increasing population and urbanization, food and security problems. Much work in recent past has been done in Pakistan to counter terrorism and other political threats, both internally and externally but in near future non traditional security challenges would have to be countered on urgent basis. In this study the communities most adversely affected by climate change and increasing food and water insecurity are those” segments of society that are at or below the poverty line”.Coupled with burgeoning population growth and a significant youth bulge, Pakistan’s looming non traditional security challenges offer a potential recipe for disaster by aggravating the country’s exisiting traditional security challenges.

Aim

To analyse non traditional security chalenges faced by Pakistan with a view to recommend measures to counter these challenges.

Sequence

Sequence is as follows:-

a. Part I Overview of Non Traditional Security Challenges

b. Part II Non traditional Challenges faced by Pakistan & Analysis

c. Part IV Recommendations

Overview of Non Traditional Security Challenges

The non traditional security challenges particularly the impact of climate change on South Asia’s food and water security scenarios, provide countries with critical impetus and hopefully opportunities to collaborate on addressing these challenges.As these threats are being faced by this region as a whole, it will require cooperation to find a regional solution. Climate change is negatively affecting human activities with an increase number of people killed, injured or made homelss. Also sudden population increase are creating problems which need to be addressed in a serious manner to control it in time. Water Security has increased to unprecedented levels in our region which needs urgent solutions which affects almost everyday routine activities.

Challenges faced by Pakistan & Analysis

Following are the non traditional security challenges faced by Pakistan

a. Climate Change. This challenge is being faced world wide particulary our region is more prone and being affected. It has caused suddent increase in temperatures in summers, decrease in winters andhas changes span of different seasons. Pakistan being an agricultural country,mostly dependent on crops and farms lands is suffering from the adverse affects of climate change resulting in less yield of crops, economic ecline, less earning for farmers in the recent past. Pakistan due this problem has also been forced to import wheat and other food items despite being an agricultural country.This has also resulted in many diseases/illnesses due to sudden varied climate making overal health hazards/problems in our society. In Pakistan, low-probability and high impact events such as floods. Droughts,storms and cyclones are now increasing in frequency. An analysis of data for the past 60 years, taken from the Centre for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters(CRED) shows that the number of natural disasters per decade has increased considerably over the last two decades. This incidentally is the period during which average global temperatures have been highest. This factor is largely attributred to changes in the environmental conditions, such as deorestation, population growth and a greater concentration of people living in hish risk areas.

b. Increase in Population. Pakistan being an 8th populous country in the world and now adversely affected by the non traditional threats needs population control on urgent basis. Population increase and high growth rates adversely affect all aspects of society, the economy and the environment. It has endagered basic civic amenities, leading to a lack of clean water and space for housing and ultimately burdening our society. Pakistan has a large population and a high growth rate that further contributes to high density and rapid urbanization. The population in Pakistan has grown by 350 percent since independence in 1947, and it is estimated that Pakistan will be the second largest contributor to global population growth after China, with a contribution of 133 million people by 2025. The most serious concern is the fact that most growth occurs in the segments of society that are at or below the poverty line. The diminished capacity of local ecosystems restricts the availability of natural resources, alters the patterns of people’s livelihoods and reduces the ability of Pakistanis to cope with other Non traditional security threats. Also Pakistan is the most urbanized country in the South Asia, with its cities expanding at a faster rate than the overall population. The “ National Disaster Management Framework for Pakistan” estimates that wheras the overall population increased by only four times from 1951 to 1998, the urban population rose by seven times during the same period.

c. Water Security. Water security is the most serious challenge for Pakistan due to several factors, particularly the increasing pressure of population growth and urbanization, massive expansion of tube-well irrigation, reduced levels of precipitation caused by climate change and accelerated retreat of Himalayan glaciers. Pakistan has rapidly transitioned from a water surplus country to one of the most water scarce countrises in South Asia. Per capita water availability plunged from 5300 to 1100 cubic meters per annum over little more than five decades. Several factors have compounded Pakistan ‘s water security challenges, particularly the increasing pressures of population and urbanization, the massive expansion of tube well irrigation has resulted in severe ground water depletion, water logging, salinity and the adverse climate change. Pakistan’s dependence on a single river system is another important threat to its water security.

d. Food Security. A house is considered food secure when its occupants do not live in hurger or fear of starvation. The numbers for Pakistan are dismal in this regard. Projections for the year 2030 begin with the alarming increase in Pakistan’s population growth from 170 million to 220 million. Such a rise will boost urbanization, further changing the ratio of urban to rural population from 35/65 to 51/49. Pakistan’s present as well as future food security or vulnerability status will hinge on a number of factors such as declining food productivity and income from traditional crops, a high dependence on imported food and growing increase in poverty from 22 percent to 27 percent.

Recommendations

Following recommendations are given to counter the non traditional challenges.

a. Climate Change

(1) Creating awareness especially amomg the younger generation beacuse Creating awareness especially among the younger generation because the root cause of environmental degradation or even climate change is human behaviour.

(2) Switch to low carbon economic growth.

(3) Adopt environmental friendly technologies.

(4) Promote sustainable consumption and production.

(5) Adopt climate resilient development and increase forest cover because forest covers are the lungs of earth.

(6) Global warming is an issue that needs to be tackled on urgent basis by Pakistan. It is causing change and severity in weather patterns and rise in sea levels. It is affecting Pakistan greatly which is already situated in a heat surplus region.

(7) Along with environment, Pakistan needs a big push on renewable energy.

(8) In order to achieve energy security in Pakistan, climate and development agendas need to be integrated. The goal of the government should be to bring a rapid reduction in per unit cost of energy so that the result would be a universal access by poor household which can drive growth process.

(9) Ultimately, Pakistan needs to invest in human security. If not these nontraditional security threats would keep on multiplying and keep on challenging all other traditional security measures that make the country safe and secure.

b. Increase in Population

(1) To address the various issues of population explosion and diminishing resources, Pakistan needs an insistent and multi-sectoral approach. Regarding this, several initiatives are being taken by the Planning Commission. The Planning Commission must take an initiative to notify a National Task Force to prepare the national action plan to tackle this grave issue.

(2) The actions on urgent priority areas like family planning in Essential Package for Health Services in Primary Healthcare (EPHS) need to be highlighted in forthcoming five-year plan including establishment of Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) Unit at Planning Commission.

(3) Pakistan needs to put in place a strong policy to invest, on priority basis, in education, and women empowerment.

(4) National foresight and decision making can be improved by creating a network of government and non-governmental futurists on call for quick futures assessments like “future considrations" section in policy reporting requirements, as well as adding foresight as a performance evaluation criterion for senior government officials.

(5) National foresight should also include how to connect foresight to decision-making in government training programs and testing proposed policies before implementation by postulating random future events of all sorts and evaluating how these might affect the policies.

(6) Add positive incentives for population growth rate that are linked with development outcomes is the formula that is really being proposed.

(7) Pakistan may be spending one dollar per capita on family planning. However, the messaging is all wrong and complicated. Pakistan needs to stabilize population, which means it must not grow beyond a certain figure, which can help in achieving results.

c. Water Security

(1) Formulate frameworks and regulations at the governmental level for prevention of exploitation of ground water.

(2) Prioritize water conservation at ground level.

(3) Improve flood irrigation system.

(4) Enhance water storage capacity.

(5) Utilize international climate change fund.

(6) Add water conservation practices to educational curriculum at primary and secondary level.

(7) Modernize the irrigation system in Pakistan to meet climate challenges of the contemporary era.

(8) Farmers need to be provided water on a need basis not on a cyclical basis which tends to deplete water resources in a lopsided manner.

(9) Conserve water from precipitation, melting of glaciers and flow from our eastern upper riparian neighbor.

(10) Build an economic vision based on ‘water economy’ to create a solid foundation for agricultural and industrial development of the country.

(11) Introduce water pricing mechanism to decrease water wastage.

(12) Set a target of 10,000 MW of hydropower and 20 MAF of additional water storage capacity in the next 10-15 years.

(13) Create consensus and depoliticize dam projects.

(14) Extend irrigation systems to 20 million acres of new land.

(15) Switch to high value-added agriculture.

(16) Restore custodial role of national resources to WAPDA.

(17) Install treatment plants on rivers near cities.

(18) Strengthen Indus Water Commission.

(19) Put your act together and give a legal response to India for maintaining sanctity of Indus Water Treaty.

d. Food Security

(1) Ensure access to the already available food.

(2) Reform the land ownership mechanisms for secure and stable agricultural investment by the farmers.

(3) Modernize agricultural practices by making investment in water and soil management, and through adoption of climate change adaptation technologies and strategies.

(4) Create awareness among public to spend on food that has higher nutritional value.

(5) Invest in better storage and more hygienic food preparation practices.

(6) Promote staying on farm and diversification of income, as opposed to migrating to nearby urban areas.

(7) Narrow the gap between average and progressive yield of crops.

(8) Enhance the capacity of the farmers though advance technologies and research information.

(9) Redefine the “Agricultural Ecological Zones” in Pakistan.

(10) Promote investment in research and development and human resource in agriculture sector.

(11) Balance the subsidies among different fertilizers.

(12) Divert excess supply of water from wheat to other crops for diversification of agricultural products.

Conclusion

Pakistan, as well as South Asia as a whole, has numerous Non traditional threats challenges with respect to climate change, population growth and urbanization, food and water security. South Asian countries have not yet found effective mechanisms to start addressing these issues. If the region remains unwilling or unable to adopt ecosystem wide approaches that incorporate transboundary strategies, progress will remain slow.

Pakistan’s exponential population growth and rapid urbanization have a strong ecological footprint, testing the limits of the eosysmtem and the services it can provide, given present rates of use and extraction. As the regenerative capacities of these ecosystems diminish, poverty and the associated vulnerability to climate change related diasters are enforced. These challenges will, however become far more serious if immediate attention is not paid to managing water resources. As Pakistan becomes a water scarce country in the coming decades, effective management will be the key to keeping the ecosystems alive.